With just a few days passed since the US election result, the effect on business jet utilisation is not obvious. In fact activity has calmed, followed several weeks where there were more flights than last year. In Europe, the political and economic strife in Germany is reflected in substantial cutbacks in bizav demand. Destabilisation and conflict in the Middle East has equally seen a big step back in flight activity.
Global
In Week 45, (4th – 10th November), there were 70,269 business jet departures globally, on par with W45 last year, ending the previous 3-week streak of year-on-year growth. Despite the tapering off in Week 45, the four-week trend is solid, trending 3% ahead of last year. The recent upwards trend contrasts with a marked slowdown after the summer. For 2024 to-date, global bizjet activity is down by 1%
Chart 1: Global business jet departures by week in 2024
North America
The run up to the US election had a positive impact on bizjet activity, but in the few days post-election, demand has weakened, not yet reflecting any bounce from the Trump victory. Week 45 (4th – 10th November) was the fourth week in a row that bizjet activity held a lead over last year. Looking back at the last 6 weeks, (30th September – November 10th), bizjet activity in key swing States steadily rose as the election week neared, peaking in weeks 42 & 43, 2-3 weeks out from election day. In the 6-week run up to election day, Corporate fleets were busiest in the key swing States, with just over 11,000 bizjet departures. In these States, Private flight departments saw the largest comparable year on year increase in flight activity, departures up 17% year on year.
Chart 2: Business jet departures, US election Swing States, 30th September – 10th November 2024.
For the first 10 days of November, bizjet activity across the US is trending down. Corporate flight activity looks to have been put on hold until after the election result. Fractional flying is still forging ahead, with almost 25% of all sectors flown so far this month. The charter market also bumped up by 3 points. Private Flight department activity is trending up 5%.
Chart 3: US Business jet departures in November 2024.
Europe
In Europe, bizjet activity fell 1% compared to Week 45 in 2023, ending 3 weeks of modest year-on-year growth. The four-week trend now stands at +3%, the year-to-date trend remains at -1%. Switzerland saw activity jump 13% compared to W45 last year, the 4-week trend now +4%. Business jet activity in Germany fell 12% compared to W45 in 2023, the 4-week trend is 5% below last year. Germany’s declines are even worse at the start of November, bizjet departures falling 17% compared to the start of November last year. Germany’s bizjet market has been in freefall most of the year, with pockets of growth centred around the hosting of the EUROS football in the summer. The bleak outlook is consistent across all operator types in Germany, worth noting that corporate flight department activity has fallen by almost a third compared to November last year.
Chart 4: Germany bizjet operator types, November 2024.
Rest of World
Bizjet activity in the Middle East fell 14% compared to W45 last year, the four-week trend 4% below last year. Activity in Africa continues to drop off, down 22% compared to W45 last year, down 14% in the last 4 weeks. In South America, bizjet demand was up 8%, though still trending down by 4% over the last 4 weeks. In Central Asia this week Baku played host to the COP29 climate conference, ahead of the conference bizjet arrivals are already peaking at Heydar Aliyev airport (UBBB). On the day before the conference started, 18 bizjet arrivals were recorded, more than double the previous day. Most arrivals came from the United Arab Emirates, 5 recorded arrivals. Out of all the arrivals on the 10th, 78% were aircraft management and branded charter.
Chart 5: Daily bizjet arrivals into Baku, November 2024, ahead of COP29 event.
