Flight activity in May clearly shows that the Trump bump back in November has dissipated, although there are no signs in the US market of a major relapse in demand which would reflect the deteriorating economic outlook since Trump’s tariffs. The one country where there is a clear indication of tariff impact is Germany, where demand is flagging significantly the last few weeks.
Global
Business jet demand was up in the most recent week, week 19, the 5th to 11th of May, compared to week 19 in 2024. The last 4-week trend in bizjet activity is 2% and the year-to-date trend is 3%. Overall, the resurgence in bizjet activity since November 2024 is clearly tapering in recent weeks.
Chart 1: Global bizjet departures by week
North America
Bizjet flights from airports in North America were up 2% compared to Week 19 last year, effectively an additional 994 flights. For May so far (through 12th), regional bizjet flights are up by 0.5%, with the dominant US market up by 0.4%, a much weaker trend compared to US trends over the last 4 weeks, which is up 2.5%. This month is seeing a big fall in Cayman, Bermuda and Dominican Republic.
Chart 2: Business jet departures by Country, North America, May 1-12 2025
Week 19 saw an erosion in activity out of Florida, outbound flights down by 1%, significantly slower than the 6% growth over the last 4 weeks. Whereas the other principal activity hubs, California and Texas, saw a Week 19 increase in flight activity. In terms of activity by OEM fleet, there is a tangible variance in trends, with Embraer aircraft flying 15% up vs May 2024. Gulfstream flight activity is up 7% year on year. Whereas the OEMs representing the lighter bizjet fleets – Hawker, Learjet and Cessna – are seeing significant drops in demand.
Chart 3: Business jet departures by aircraft OEM, departures from United States, May 1-12 2025
Picking out some specific growth spots, we are noting that the business airport Busiest airport pair in the US this month is KLAS-KBUR, bizjet flights up 74% compared to May last year, with flights since January up 39% compared to last year. Jet Suite X is responsible for the growth in the route this year, their VIP shuttle service flying 61% more flights than comparable last year. JSX is the second busiest operator out of KLAS airport this year, top operator NetJets. US-wide, shuttle operators like JSX account for just 2% of bizjet departures this year, although their activity is up 14% year on year. NetJets activity is up 11% across the US so far this year, flights out of Florida up by 11% compared to last year.
Europe
European bizjet activity fell 2% compared to Week 19 last year, the last four-week trend now at -5%. Most major markets were down in Week 19, France and Switzerland were particularly weak with departures falling 8% compared to Week 19 last year. In Germany, bizjet sectors dropped 6% last week, at least an improvement on the last four-week trend which stands at -19%. The month of May, so far, has been relatively strong, flights up 2%, with Turkey and Sweden seeing double-digit activity growth, mainly in domestic traffic. Year to date, business jet departures from Europe are down by 1% compared to last year, just 2% up compared to pre-pandemic Jan-May 2019. Over that period, two of the three core markets, UK and France, have seen modest growth of about 5%. The third core market, Germany, has seen flight activity decline 15%. Compared to last year, bizjet flights in Germany are down by 7%. Airports in the metro areas of Berlin and Stuttgart have seen the largest declines.
Chart 4: Business jet departures from German cities, January – May 2025
Rest of World
Outside of North America and Europe, activity in Week 19 grew just 1% compared to Week 19 last year. Strong growth in Africa and the Middle East, 27% and 7% respectively, largely offset by 8% declines in Asia and 3% declines in South America. Month-to-date, through 13th May, bizjet activity is down by 0.3%, with varying trends, notably bizjet departures from India down by 22%.
Chart 5: Business jet departures from rest of world, May 2025.
